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Portrait of Alessandro Chiari

Welcome! My name is Alessandro Chiari. I am a Senior Researcher in the Research Division of the Czech National Bank .

My research interests are in banking and financial stability, fiscal policy, and public finance.

Research

Published papers

Bank capital and the minimum corporate tax

International Tax and Public Finance, 2026.

Abstract. This paper examines how the Pillar Two global minimum tax affects banks' profits and regulatory capital. Using quarterly bank data from 2014 to 2024, it compares banks with different levels of exposure to low-tax jurisdictions before the reform. More exposed banks experience modest declines in profitability and Tier 1 capital buffers after 2024. The reduction in capital buffers is most pronounced among banks that entered the reform with limited capital headroom.

Event-study chart showing a larger decline for banks with high pre-reform low-tax exposure after the global minimum tax begins
Figure 3: Dynamic effects around the 2024 implementation of the global minimum tax. Source: published article.

Do tax havens affect the usage of share buybacks schemes?

Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 97(3), 579-616, 2026.

Abstract. This study investigates whether U.S. multinational companies with greater use of tax-haven subsidiaries carry out more share buybacks. It finds a positive association between tax-haven activity and the share-buyback ratio, as well as higher free cash flow and investment returns. The analysis also examines how U.S. tax reforms and sales of U.S. shares by tax-haven entities relate to repurchase behaviour, using panel data and several empirical approaches.

Matched-sample difference-in-differences results
TermCoefficientRobust standard error
Tax-haven presence0.0420.021
Post-2017 period0.0370.018
Tax-haven presence × post-20170.2050.073

Revenue losses from corporate tax avoidance: Estimations from the UNUWIDER Government Revenue Dataset

Review of Development Economics, 28(2), 600-629, 2024.

Abstract. Using the 2021 UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset, this paper estimates tax revenue lost to corporate profit shifting in 2019. It puts global losses at about USD 480 billion using statutory tax rates and USD 600 billion using effective rates. Relative to GDP, losses are larger in low-income and non-OECD countries. Estimates based on statutory rates suggest that global losses have broadly levelled off since 2013, while effective-rate estimates indicate an increase.

Estimated global corporate tax revenue losses, 2019
Estimation methodRevenue loss
Statutory tax ratesAbout USD 480 billion
Effective tax ratesAbout USD 600 billion

Work in progress

Safe for Whom? Investment Flows to Sovereign Bonds During Global and Regional Stress

Co-authors Martijn Boermans, Martin Hodula, Simona Malovaná

The paper studies how investors assess sovereign-bond safety and adjust their holdings during global and regional stress.

Condemned to Remain Small? Tax Incentives, Firm Size Distortions, and Industry Productivity in Europe

A study of whether preferential tax treatment for small firms affects their growth and the distribution of employment and value added across firm sizes in Europe.

Meta-analysis of profit shifting elasticities

Co-authors Petr Janský, Jan Schwarz

A synthesis of empirical estimates of how multinational profit shifting responds to differences in corporate tax rates.

Cost Shocks and Firm Wage Adjustment: Micro Evidence from the Energy Crisis

Using Czech firm-level data, this project examines how firms adjust wages, productivity, and employment when energy and other input costs rise.

Reforming Cooperative Banking: Evidence from Italy's 2015-2016 Structural Reforms

Co-author Steven Ongena

The paper examines consolidation and intragroup liquidity sharing following reforms to Italy's cooperative banks.

CV

My full curriculum vitae is available here: Download CV.

Profiles

Contact

Email: alessandro.chiari@cnb.cz